Forecast Integrity
Does the forecast reflect what is actually happening?
What it is
Whether the forecast completion date is credible — a reflection of real progress and logic, not what the programme would prefer to show.
Why it matters
Leadership plans, commits and mitigates on the forecast. A forecast that isn’t honest is worse than no forecast, because decisions are made on it.
What to check
- Does the forecast follow from real progress and logic, or from a constraint?
- Has the critical path been re-tested for this update?
- Are any recovery assumptions realistic and evidenced?
- Is remaining float genuine or artificial?
- Does the forecast reconcile with the slippage trend?
Common warning signs
- A completion date pinned by a hard constraint
- Recovery that assumes impossible productivity
- Float that appears from nowhere
- A forecast that never moves despite visible slippage
Practical approach
Rebuild the forecast from the driving path and real progress; test recovery against evidence; strip artificial float. An honest forecast is one leadership can plan against.